economy research

Montgomery County’s Population Rebound, Part 2: A comparison with our neighbors

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Montgomery Planning’s Research and Strategic Projects Division tracks population trends to help planners and public officials plan the county’s future and determine how we can best create attractive communities and remain economically competitive in the Washington, DC region and beyond. In Part 1 of this blog series, we explained the latest U.S. Census Bureau estimates showing how Montgomery County’s population has started to rebound from the losses it experienced from COVID-19 pandemic. In this follow-up analysis, we can see how it has fared compared with the rest of the region.

Overview of our analysis

Census data estimates show Montgomery County lost fewer people to other areas of the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic and has begun recovering … Continue reading

Century of change: Where we are after 100 years of homebuilding in Montgomery County

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An analysis of Montgomery County’s property assessment database over the past century shows homebuilding consistently increased before peaking in the 1980s and has since slowed substantially. The data also show how the composition of the housing stock has changed over time, from overwhelmingly single-family to many more townhouses and apartments.

From before the 1920s through the 1980s, each successive decade saw more homes built than the decade before, except for the 1970s. Then, starting in the 1990s, the trend reversed, with a sharp drop-off in new homes from the 1980s. The decline continued through 2019. Data for 2020 to 2022 suggest that the county may be on pace for another decade of decline.  

Repositioning Montgomery County for Prosperity, Part 3: Abundant Housing for Inclusive Growth

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The previous two blogs in this series summarized the Navigating Income Shifts in Montgomery County: Towards Shared Prosperity research brief that describes how disproportionate changes along the income distribution underlie Montgomery County’s stagnating incomes. The low-income population has been increasing rapidly, while the middle-income segment is shrinking, and the high-income population, though growing in absolute terms, has not increased as a share of the population.

This final blog in the series discusses why this trend is a problem and what Montgomery County can do about it. As a reminder, the expansion of the low-income population, by itself, is not a problem. Rather, it should be seen as a success and a validation of Montgomery County’s welcoming and diverse values, … Continue reading

Repositioning Montgomery County for Prosperity, Part 2: Montgomery County’s Income Shifts in Regional and National Contexts

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The previous blog in this series described how income-based population dynamics are shifting within Montgomery County. This blog compares these dynamics with those in Montgomery County’s regional neighbors and other large counties across the nation.

Income Change in the Washington, DC Region

The previous blog noted that Montgomery County’s low- and middle-income populations both shifted by five percentage points, in opposite directions, from 2005 to 2022. The low-income share of Montgomery County’s population rose from 25% to 30%, while the middle-income share fell from 23% to 18%.

This shift may not seem significant, but it stands out in the region. Compared with the United States as a whole and the 10 largest jurisdictions near Montgomery County, these compositional changes … Continue reading

Repositioning Montgomery County for Prosperity, Part 1: Montgomery County’s Income Shifts

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Montgomery County is a great place to live, work, and visit, but it faces economic challenges. One of the most serious problems is that residents’ incomes are stagnating, which is a sign that overall prosperity and quality of life might be stagnating also. The county’s median household income has not kept up with inflation since 2005.1 The third quarter 2023 Montgomery County Economic Indicators Briefing 2 noted that Montgomery County had the slowest growth rate in per capita personal income from 2004 to 2021 among 30 similarly sized counties, barely keeping up with inflation.3

But these top-line statistics don’t explain the full story. While multiple factors could underlie this stagnancy, one trend we can examine is how Montgomery County’s … Continue reading

Steady growth projected for Montgomery County over the next 30 years

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By James Lee and Benjamin Kraft

Latest data reflect county’s status as a populous, maturing suburb

Montgomery Planning’s Research and Strategic Projects (RSP) Division is responsible for developing Montgomery County’s long-range forecasts for employment, population, and households as part of the Metropolitan Washington Council of Government’s (MWCOG) Cooperative Forecast Program. The Round 10 forecast was recently completed, and new numbers show over the next 30 years the county is projected to experience growth in population, households, and jobs. The growth rate, however, is estimated to be at a slower pace than previous forecasts, reflecting the county’s status as a populous, maturing suburb. The forecast estimates the county will add 143,000 jobs (up from 493,600 in 2020 to 636,500 in … Continue reading