The Montgomery County Development Pipeline has spurred a lot of debate as the county deals with a severe housing shortage. The pipeline is a database of projects in the county that have received regulatory approval but have not yet been built. Currently, there are 278 development projects in the pipeline, totaling just under 30,000 unbuilt housing units. Some projects have been in the pipeline for decades.
One of the most repeated narratives in Montgomery County housing-policy debates is that the number of units in the pipeline is sufficient to meet the housing needs of our county for years to come. This narrative is built on a false assumption.
This argument assumes that the amount of development that has received regulatory approval matches exactly what the developer will build. Ultimately, the decision to develop and what to develop rests with private property owners. These decisions are driven by many factors including available financing from public and private sources, environmental constraints of a particular property, the ownership structure of a property and agreement among all owners, market demand, and interest from prospective tenants for commercial projects.
Development approval typically implies Subdivision or Preliminary Plan approval and there may be other regulatory approvals needed to implement that original approval. Subdivision approvals establish a validity period or timeline to record plats and ultimately pull building permits, generally three and five years, respectively. Larger projects can have longer validity periods. It takes time and financial resources to proceed to the next step, whether that is preparing a site plan application, recording plats, or applying for building permits. Additionally, Preliminary Plans are tested and approved for the maximum densities on a property, and subsequent site plans frequently decrease the square footage or unit yield based upon design and site considerations. Ultimately, units from these projects stay in the pipeline until building permits are issued by the Department of Permitting Services.
Learn more about Montgomery County’s Development Pipeline from Deputy Director Robert Kronenberg
Of course, developers generally don’t submit applications for approval of projects they have no intention to build, so applications can be a useful indicator of what people in the real estate business are thinking. A development application is one step – albeit an important one – in the process, with many different economic, physical, and managerial variables to consider once an application to build something has been approved.
The Development Pipeline map tracks approved residential and non-residential development in Montgomery County (Rockville, Gaithersburg, Laytonsville and Poolesville included). The pipeline is an inventory of development projects that have been approved by the Planning Board, but not completely built.
What this all means is that the Development Pipeline is not a good measure of what is or will be available to meet the projected demand for housing. People want and need housing. We should continue to zone for housing that meets demand in the places that have the infrastructure to support it because some properties may change course and not develop to the full zoning capacity. Those who argue against expanding the housing supply because there’s plenty of approved projects in the pipeline should realize that the pipeline is not a realistic, practical, or reliable indicator of the county’s ability to meet housing demand, and doesn’t reflect the economic reality of a project’s viability.
With that said, Montgomery Planning realizes that getting pipeline projects moving is one of the best ways to meet our housing goals. Over the next several months, we are working on a thorough analysis of the pipeline to better understand project-specific impediments to getting these units built, including a deep dive into each project’s history through amendments. Every development project has a story for why it is on hold or moving ahead. After our deep dive, we hope to implement strategies and policies to accelerate the construction of unbuilt pipeline units to meet our housing goals.
About the authorsLisa Govoni is the Housing, Infrastructure, and Zoning Supervisor for Montgomery Planning’s Countywide Planning & Policy Division. Lisa serves as the lead on major housing-related projects, including long-range sector planning activities and policy and zoning changes related to housing. Lisa completed her BA in Government and Politics in 2008, her MCP in Community Planning in 2011 and her MPS in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in 2013, all from the University of Maryland, College Park.
Liz Brenner
Shouldn’t keeping the housing “Development Pipeline” moving be a priority for a county that is complaining of a housing shortage? Why has it taken Planning so long to look at this? We all want to know why Planning lets White Flint sit vacant for umpteen years while at the same time propose rezoning our neighborhoods for triplexes and quadplexes.
AD
Your analysis of the pipeline is flawed, the Planning Board doesn’t know how many housing permits are issued, and without such elementary data, why would you be qualified to opine on housing? Your premise of a housing crisis is a sweeping generalization not rooted in fact. Your false narrative is ill informed and the planning board is a disaster of a public agency that has zero credibility.