{"id":5111,"date":"2018-08-21T09:09:57","date_gmt":"2018-08-21T13:09:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/montgomeryplanning.org\/blog-design\/?p=5111"},"modified":"2026-04-13T14:58:18","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T18:58:18","slug":"real-estate-development-is-infrastructure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/montgomeryplanning.org\/blog-design\/2018\/08\/real-estate-development-is-infrastructure\/","title":{"rendered":"Real Estate Development *Is* Infrastructure"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"lead\"><!--<img decoding=\"async\" tabindex=\"-1\" id=\"longdesc-return-5186\" longdesc=\"http:\/\/montgomeryplanning.org\/blog-design?longdesc=5186&#038;referrer=5111\" src=\"http:\/\/montgomeryplanning.org\/blog-design\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/rentalthumbnail_300-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"alignright size-full wp-image-5186\" \/>-->I often hear people say things like:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cReal estate development just makes developers rich \u2013 it doesn\u2019t do anything to help our economy,\u201d or<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI understand why we need to bring more employers to Montgomery County, but building more housing just adds to the overcrowding of our schools \u2013 we should be pushing for more office projects,\u201d or<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI\u2019m not against growth but we shouldn\u2019t allow more development until we have the infrastructure to support it.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>If you\u2019ve read the previous posts in this series, you have some idea why I think these statements reflect mistaken premises about the relationship between real estate development and Montgomery County\u2019s ability to attract high-quality jobs and the workers to fill them. The basic argument goes like this:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>If the supply of housing does not keep up with even modest growth in jobs and population, residents who don\u2019t have much choice about where to live and work will get squeezed hardest while residents who have skills that are most in demand elsewhere (who also tend to get paid more and therefore pay more in taxes) may consider taking a job in a place where they can get more and better housing for their money.<\/li>\n<li>The people whose choices of work location are constrained tend to have fewer skills that command a premium in wages, but this is not uniformly true \u2013 for example, people who work for trade associations, think tanks, law and lobbying firms, and other employers oriented around the nation\u2019s capital might not find jobs that suit their skills in Pittsburgh, Austin or Raleigh. On the other hand, if we want to diversify away from reliance on government as the foundation of our job base we need to draw and retain people (and employers) who aren\u2019t tied to the government, such as computer scientists or biologists. In this instance, the relative cost of living (driven largely by housing) is highly relevant to our competitiveness.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>That\u2019s why real estate development is essential to what most people think of as economic development, i.e., the ability to encourage employers to bring high quality jobs to Montgomery County. Housing is only part of the equation \u2013 employers also look for office space that suits the needs of their businesses and their employees, and Bethesda, Tysons Corner and downtown Washington continue to see construction of new office buildings even as vacancy rates in suburban office parks remain elevated &#8211; but I have emphasized housing because I have observed a huge gap between perception (that new housing is getting built at a rapid clip) and reality (that housing starts have been anemic), with serious consequences for affordability and in turn for our economic competitiveness.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The point is that real estate development is infrastructure.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Whether it involves construction of housing, office buildings, or for that matter retail space, real estate development supports economic activity directly and indirectly by serving basic human needs, i.e., creating places for people to live and work (not to mention to get a haircut, visit a doctor, have their clothes dry cleaned or put their kids in day care).<\/p>\n<p>Of course, as people start occupying and using the new buildings constructed by real estate developers, other infrastructure such as roads, rail and bus lines, schools, and water and sewer pipes are also required. The main difference between infrastructure in the form of roads and schools and infrastructure in the form of houses and office buildings is that the former is built by the government while the latter is constructed by private firms. This difference does not change the fact that the buildings themselves are a form of infrastructure.<\/p>\n<p>Some of you are probably thinking, \u201cWait a minute \u2013 why should we be encouraging more people and more growth? Even if real estate development is infrastructure, allowing this kind of infrastructure to be built just draws more people to our community, where they will add to the overcrowding of our schools and the congestion on our roads. Don\u2019t build it and they won\u2019t come!\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As I\u2019ve discussed in previous posts, people have continued to move to Montgomery County and to the Washington area despite the low rate of new housing construction. Housing production doesn&#8217;t drive population growth; it&#8217;s a response to it.<\/p>\n<p>Luckily, our region has added jobs (albeit with weak wage growth) and people move here to take them. In an earlier post, I showed that while our growth rate has slowed, we are still projected to add 200,000 residents by 2040, a 40 percent increase in worker households:<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"Demand from Households with a Payroll Job, (Employment-Driven), Montgomery County\" aria-label=\"Line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-YwiMg\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/YwiMg\/3\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"403\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">window.addEventListener(\"message\",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";r.style.height=d}}});<\/script><\/p>\n<p>These job projections are based on data from the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments that don&#8217;t make any particularly aggressive or optimistic assumptions, e.g., that Amazon will choose the DC region for its second headquarters or that we will experience another dot-com-style tech boom.<\/p>\n<p>With an <a href=\"http:\/\/montgomeryplanning.org\/blog-design\/2018\/07\/wages-inequality-and-the-aging-of-the-workforce\/\">aging population<\/a>, we&#8217;re also going to see an increase in the number of non-worker households:<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"Demand from Households without a Payroll Job (Demographic-Driven), Montgomery County\" aria-label=\"Line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-IgUho\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/IgUho\/2\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"403\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">window.addEventListener(\"message\",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";r.style.height=d}}});<\/script><\/p>\n<p>This phenomenon is a product of the aging of the Baby Boomers out of the workforce. As the Boomers retire, some will decide to move out of the county or region, but others will age in place and downsize to another residence in our community. Taken together, new worker households coupled with a growing older population that stays here means that we will need housing for the incoming workers who replace retirees over and above the housing required to accommodate new jobs:<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"Housing Demand and Supply Montgomery County, 2040\" aria-label=\"Stacked column chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-lAcV0\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/lAcV0\/2\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"527\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">window.addEventListener(\"message\",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";r.style.height=d}}});<\/script><\/p>\n<p>As I showed in an earlier post, if we don&#8217;t provide enough housing to meet this projected demand we will continue to see rising costs, disproportionately affecting renters and low-income residents. Here you can see that Montgomery County residents with household incomes between $25,000-50,000 a year pay almost 90 percent of their income to housing \u2013 far in excess of the 35 percent guideline beyond which a household is deemed housing cost-burdened:<\/p>\n<p><<iframe title=\"Share of Households Paying 30% or More on Housing Costs by Tenure and Income\" aria-label=\"Line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-dWwKv\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/dWwKv\/2\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">window.addEventListener(\"message\",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";r.style.height=d}}});<\/script><\/p>\n<p>Yet in 2017, Montgomery County issued only about a third of the permits issued in 1998 and less than half the 20-year average. Here&#8217;s a simplified version of a chart I shared in an earlier post, but with an additional bar showing permits projected over the next five years:<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"Montgomery County Building Permits\" aria-label=\"Stacked column chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-y587d\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/y587d\/2\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"475\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">window.addEventListener(\"message\",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";r.style.height=d}}});<\/script><\/p>\n<p>The yellow segment of the bar on the right side of the chart indicates the number of building permits projected to be issued over the next five years. The green segment of the bar shows the additional number we would need in order to keep pace with projected demand. As you can see, over the next five years we expect to fall short by about a third.<\/p>\n<p>As I\u2019ve explained, this shortfall has consequences: more workers chasing fewer units continues to drive up costs for everyone. I said earlier that housing does not drive population growth, but in extreme cases, where construction of new housing persistently lags population, housing may become unaffordable to large segments of the population, which may tend to discourage people from moving here or encouraging them to go elsewhere.<\/p>\n<p>This kind of approach to the problems associated with regional population growth is worse than the disease, as it pushes people who have few constraints on where to live out of our community and causes major economic hardships for people whose choices are constrained. This situation makes it harder for employers to attract and retain the workers they need to thrive, burdens middle and lower income people with higher housing costs, encourages sprawl and accompanying increases in vehicle travel, and ultimately makes everyone pay more money for lower quality housing.<\/p>\n<p>We are already feeling this squeeze in Montgomery County, the DC region, and in many other metro areas that proved most resilient during the downturn but now face the need to adapt in order to encourage stronger job and wage growth.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/montgomeryplanning.org\/blog-design\/2018\/08\/more-on-housing-as-infrastructure\/\">Next: More on Housing as Infrastructure<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p class=\"lead\">I often hear people say things like:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cReal estate development just makes developers rich \u2013 it doesn\u2019t do anything to help our economy,\u201d or<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI understand why we need to bring more employers to Montgomery County, but building more housing just adds to the overcrowding of our schools \u2013 we should be pushing for more office projects,\u201d or<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI\u2019m not against growth but we shouldn\u2019t allow more development until we have the infrastructure to support it.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>If you\u2019ve read the previous posts in this series, you have some idea why I think these statements reflect mistaken premises about the relationship between real estate development and Montgomery County\u2019s ability to attract high-quality jobs and the workers to fill them. The &#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/montgomeryplanning.org\/blog-design\/2018\/08\/real-estate-development-is-infrastructure\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,519],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5111","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-planning","category-research"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/montgomeryplanning.org\/blog-design\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5111","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/montgomeryplanning.org\/blog-design\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/montgomeryplanning.org\/blog-design\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/montgomeryplanning.org\/blog-design\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/31"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/montgomeryplanning.org\/blog-design\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5111"}],"version-history":[{"count":19,"href":"https:\/\/montgomeryplanning.org\/blog-design\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5111\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11223,"href":"https:\/\/montgomeryplanning.org\/blog-design\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5111\/revisions\/11223"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/montgomeryplanning.org\/blog-design\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5111"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/montgomeryplanning.org\/blog-design\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5111"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/montgomeryplanning.org\/blog-design\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5111"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}