{"id":4056,"date":"2016-11-04T18:07:29","date_gmt":"2016-11-04T22:07:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/montgomeryplanning.org\/blog-design\/?p=4056"},"modified":"2017-01-11T16:28:42","modified_gmt":"2017-01-11T21:28:42","slug":"new-forecast-for-montgomery-county","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/montgomeryplanning.org\/blog-design\/2016\/11\/new-forecast-for-montgomery-county\/","title":{"rendered":"New Forecast for Montgomery County"},"content":{"rendered":"\"Downtown<\/a>\n

The Montgomery County Planning Department, in cooperation with the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG), recently developed a new forecast of population, households and employment from 2010 to 2045.\u00a0 These data-based forecasts are used by government entities and the private sector for various uses, including transportation, water and air quality modeling, and analyzing commercial and residential markets. \u00a0This latest forecast, known as Round 9.0, is a major reassessment of assumptions made about people, households and jobs in the county.<\/p>\n

The draft Round 9.0 forecast anticipates that Montgomery County households, defined as occupied housing units with related or unrelated persons, are expected to increase from about 374,800 in 2015 to 461,900 in 2045, an increase of 87,100 households or 23 percent.\u00a0 The county population, which includes persons living in households and group quarters, is also forecasted to grow from 1,015,300 to 1,223,300 persons over the same 30-year period.\u00a0 This increase represents a growth of about 208,000 persons or 20 percent.\u00a0 Likewise, employment in Montgomery County is expected to expand from about 520,000 jobs in 2015 to 678,700 jobs in 2045, an increase of 158,500 jobs or 30 percent. \u00a0Figure 1, below, displays the draft Round 9.0 growth forecast for households, population and employment.<\/p>\n

Figure 1.\u00a0 Round 9.0 Forecast of Employment, Households, and Population<\/h3>\n\"Figure<\/a>\n

Over the next 30 years, Montgomery is expected to maintain its status as the second largest county in the region with about 461,900 households, only exceeded by Fairfax County, VA.\u00a0 This ranking is in keeping with the 2015 estimate of households when Montgomery County ranked second in size with 374,900 households.\u00a0 Montgomery County\u2019s expected growth in new households between 2015 and 2045, at 87,100 households, is the third largest regionally.<\/p>\n

Figure 2.\u00a0 Round 9.0, Regional Household Forecast<\/h3>\n\"Figure<\/a>\n

Likewise, Montgomery County is expected to maintain its status as a major regional jobs center.\u00a0 By 2045, the County is expected to have the third largest number of jobs, at approximately 678,700.\u00a0 The County is also expected to rank third in employment growth in the 2015 to 2045 period with a net increase of 158,500 jobs.\u00a0 Only the forecasts for the District of Columbia and Fairfax County assume greater employment growth.<\/p>\n

Figure 3.\u00a0 Round 9.0, Regional Employment Forecast<\/h3>\n\"Figure<\/a>\n

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Of course, not all growth is expected to occur uniformly throughout the county.\u00a0 Different neighborhoods accommodate different densities of residential and commercial uses that yield household, population and employment growth.\u00a0 For planning purposes, Montgomery County is divided into 33 policy areas. A policy area is defined as<\/a> \u201ca geographic sub-area of the county delineated by the Planning Board and adopted by the County Council in the Growth Policy for the purpose of staging analysis and the establishment of transportation staging ceiling capacities.\u201d When the forecast is analyzed at the planning policy area-level, household growth varies across the county.\u00a0 From 2015 to 2045, household growth is expected to be most pronounced along the Interstate-270 spine, along the Metrorail Red Lines, and the White Oak vicinity (see Map 1).\u00a0 The 10 policy areas likely to see the greatest growth in households, in descending order, are:<\/p>\n