Posts tagged ‘planning’

Members of Generation Y

A few weeks ago, I wrote about our Montgomery County Snapshot report. Lots of interesting facts, that when shaken and poured in some form, really tell us a convincing story about the future.

- How fast will we grow
- Who is going to make up the population
- Will folks in the middle be able to afford living here
- Do we need to worry about future revenue

Before reading any further, watch the video we developed – with great music – that leads you through the maze of indicators in a logical order.

Let’s cover some important points. First, do we need to grow?

That question really is “where will the growth occur?” because we don’t have a choice about growth. We will grow regardless of current public policy. So while we cannot stop it, we can plan for it. Better to be on the train than watching it pull out of the station without us.

Second point. Having 97.5 % of our residential land dedicated to single-family homes means:
1. Not much is going to change in those areas
2. Property taxes will never be increased enough on low-density development to pay for our infrastructure maintenance and upgrades. Did you know MoCo is the seventh least dense place of the 10 metro counties?

Let’s think about where future growth will occur. Only 2.9% of the County land area (this does not include the incorporated areas – Gaithersburg, Rockville, etc.), is zoned for commercial, mixed use and industrial uses. That is very little for a County of 650 square miles. That 2.9% is where the growth will occur, such as strip malls in Wheaton and White Flint. Peppered into that mix are the sites where we may see some infill development, hopefully along the main thoroughfares.

While the areas with growth potential do not add up to much land, they can be more holistic in terms of services, jobs, etc. and represent the greatest revenue potential. Those areas are where we need to attract Generation Y. As noted in the video, property tax assessments over the last 20 years went up as follows.
- Bethesda – $9.8 million
- Silver Spring $4.3 million
- Rest of the county – $418,000

These numbers highlight how our urban centers hold the key to our future revenue growth.

Couple this with the data on ages. In these areas, the change in average age of residents over a 15-year period was as follows:

- Bethesda – dropped 12.1 %
- Silver Spring – dropped 22.5 %
- rest of the County – increased by 4.5 %

Statistics show that the Gen Y group wants urban lite locations (the blog Just Up The Pike has a great piece on this issue). And the Bethesda and Silver Spring numbers highlight this trend. If we provide more opportunities in White Flint, Takoma Langley, Kensington and Wheaton for example, then we offer an alternative to D.C. that is more affordable, accessible and diverse.

Sixty-three percent of our seniors live in single family. While many seniors will choose to age in place, many others will seek condos or apartments or senior living. In my building, there are lots of seniors because everything is so close for them. But this statistics has big implications because of the future turnover of the housing market.
With family sizes trending smaller, the questions in the video apply. With homes averaging four bedrooms and 2,300 square feet, who will be able to afford to maintain much of our housing stock? Our median house price of $460,000 is unattainable to anyone making the area median income.

And it is not just in home ownership where we are pricing ourselves beyond reach. Since 2000, the number of high-cost rental units increased from 16 percent to 51 percent. This is a serious social and economic development issue. When people cannot gain access to our service sector jobs, then we are not competitive in business.
So, if we are on track to see a drop in the number of working age adults to each senior in the County from 5.5 to 3.4 by 2030, this should be our wake-up call.

The indicators.
1. Our Gen Y graduates want to live in urban lite locations.
2. The only places where we can make significant changes to generate new revenue streams is around metro stations and strip malls, less than 2.9% of the County.
3. We have a huge supply of housing with more bedrooms than people.
4. Our population is aging fast and we are dropping in the number of working age people paying the bills.

Working with communities, property owners, County Council and the Executive, a team approach has begun to set the groundwork in places like White Flint and Takoma Langley where we can address each of those indicators. And this teamwork is continuing on the next plans like Wheaton and the East County Science Corridor. Look for more holistic thinking in these plans as everyone starts thinking broadly about how to grow in the most strategic and sustainable manner. That’s a subject for the next post.

Before reading any further, watch the video we developed – with great music – that leads you through the maze of indicators in a logical order.