Archive for March, 2011
Arrival City
We live in amazing times. On the global scale, the changes occurring as the world’s population flocks to cities are unprecedented. On the national scale, this change is much less, but impactful nonetheless.
A few years ago, the United Nations issued a report that cited “the growth of cities will be the largest influence in nation-building this century. Managing this urban growth is one of the most important challenges we face.”
Over the past 10 years, the number of people living in urban places exceeded the number of rural dwellers for the first time. The number of urban dwellers will double again by mid-century, and in Asia and Africa, the number of people living in cities will double in just 30 years. That duplicates in one generation the entire history of urban growth on those continents. This change is staggering.
By 2050, roughly 80 percent of the world’s urban population will live in developing nations. Why is this important for Montgomery County?
We already see the bulk of population growth in Montgomery County and the United States occur due to births in the minority population and immigration. Montgomery County way outperforms the region, state and country on attracting immigrants.
Urbanization occurs because people harbor hopes of prosperity and better lives. City life offers opportunities in business, better services and the possibility of sharing of wealth with family members.
Cousin Syndrome
The Cousin Syndrome goes back to the mass migrations from Europe at the turn of the last century, although those new residents landed in the big U.S. cities. Today, more immigrants live in the suburbs, but the concept holds true. After new residents find work in the burbs, they send money back home – along with a message that there are better opportunities. Relatives follow. They share housing, capital and ideas. They begin to grow new businesses, employ more people. Their children assimilate into schools, social and cultural activities. The civic culture benefits from their participation in the local economy.
With each passing generation, the “new” residents become more and more integrated into our society. The children quickly begin to advance in school, graduating into universities and college programs, then entering many new walks of life. The new generations seize opportunities their parents may not have had.
Arrival City
In Montgomery County, we need to assess how the rapid changes in our landscape will necessitate change. Montgomery County is already an Arrival City, a huge magnet for immigrants. Over the course of history, the most successful communities for new residents provide good places for people to live, work, get an education and cultivate relationships in the community, all in close proximity. If parents have to travel 45 minutes each way to work, their time with family is at risk. If new residents do not have access to housing they can afford, services and cultural norms like native food, the community support network so common and important to new immigrants, begins to break down.
Around the world, immigrant communities confront local regulations like zoning that prevents the mixing of activities so common to foreign residents whether they are from Europe, Central America, Asia or the Middle East. Our suburban pattern of growth, which is mimicked in so many places overseas, has created issues for new residents.
Many foreign-born populations, many of whom are the minorities that make up over 50 percent of the county population, thrive on working and living in close proximity. It is important to consider how to maintain the social fabric that acts as a network to help communities thrive, which may mean differences in how the suburbs have traditionally evolved, functioned and prospered.
We are looking at planning for today and our future residents.
25- to 35-Year-Olds
The make-up of Gen X and Y, the County’s fastest-growing demographic, will soon become more than 50 percent minority. We need these young people to choose us as their place to live, find multiple careers and establish roots. They prefer multicultural places they can walk to and socializing outside their homes. They tend to like smaller living spaces, and for the first time in generations, generate less car ownership.
By 2015, we will see as many as 4.4 million new renters in the United States, largely made up of Gen X and Y as well as those who lost their homes to foreclosure. Add to this the rapid growth in foreign-born populations who cannot afford to buy into our housing market. The Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS) are rapidly expanding into markets to which the gen X and Y folks are attracted. Washington is now on the REIT radar screen, joining the likes of New York, Atlanta and Miami as destination for younger people to move to.
In Montgomery County, we can expect more rental units. This is the one segment of the housing market that shows growth and is providing positive returns. Our County needs more housing opportunities, especially for new residents and recent graduates, who change jobs more frequently than most people buy cars.
Have we created enough opportunities to provide this shift in housing trends? A new master plan in White Flint and our draft plan in Wheaton are moving in the right direction. Opportunities exist in places like Burtonsville, where retail centers could offer the type of environment where there is a mix of housing types, tenure and services near a bus transfer station and Park and Ride.
What Is Our Role ?
People have to get to places. While we want to create more areas where much of our daily lives can be conducted in close proximity, the fact of life in the suburbs is that most activities are spread out, requiring travel. Convenient, regular and affordable transit is a must, especially considering the high cost of housing. The recent graduate without a car and sharing a rental unit needs to get places conveniently, just as does the service sector worker with school-aged children, as does our rapidly growing population of seniors. Transportation is key for our current and future residents, and that future, largely, is buses.
We must provide opportunities for reasonably priced housing close to services in places throughout the community like strip malls and underutilized shopping centers. Once we have provided the housing and access, we can then capitalize on the energy of our new residents to help them, their children and our community prosper.
Census Time
The results for the 2010 census are in, and the findings are intriguing. For Montgomery County, the big story is all about population and race.
Many of us expected that the County would become a majority–minority place, meaning that minorities make up over 50 percent of the population. While the Census reported that Montgomery County is 50.7% minority, those groups are traditionally undercounted, so the actual number is probably higher. We saw a decrease of 40,486 whites over the decade, while an increase of 139,151 persons of varying ethnicities more than compensated for the decline.
Since 1980, MoCo has outpaced the state, region and nation in the growth of the foreign born population – including people of all races and color. This county is a magnet for people coming from other countries, peaking at 31 percent of the population in 2009. Statewide, 27 percent of the more than 245,000 new Hispanic residents in Maryland settled in MoCo.
As populations across the country shift, they impact school enrollment, recreation programs, health services, retailing, transportation, housing stock and more.
While the county continued to grow at just over 1 percent per year, the bulk of the growth is a result of the increase in the ethnic population. Mapping the data by smaller areas called census tracts, we can see where folks are moving.
The map illustrates where the highest percentages of minorities have located in the county. Red areas depict the areas that are non-Hispanic white; blue and white areas show where fewer whites are living
Where Are People Moving in the County?
The highest growth has occurred in centers like Germantown, Clarksburg and Rockville. And these same areas have big gains in the minority population. Germantown had the biggest overall gain, with just under 20,000 new residents; half that growth was in the Hispanic population.
These are big changes that offer new opportunities as well as new challenges. Across the nation, the largest growth in family size is among the Hispanic community. Montgomery County has a lot of single-family houses and, with great schools, offers a lot to a young family . But can our younger families and singles afford to live here?
As populations across the country shift, they impact school enrollment, recreation programs, health services, retailing, transportation, housing stock and more.
We are anxious for the Census data on age to come out in June. Whether or not MoCo is attracting the Gen X and Y population is critical to the economic success of the county. This segment has specific needs for housing types, home ownership, proximity to work and activities, and retailing.
Business Growth
Retailing is already shifting in places like Takoma Langley, with wonderful shops offering new products to MoCo residents, such as cultural garb and food. I find the markets fascinating, displaying incredibly tasty food.
In fact, it is minorities who will create the most new businesses in America. Providing the opportunities for these new businesses to locate, establish and thrive should be our priority. Between 2002 and 2007, we saw considerable growth in new businesses by ethnic populations: Hispanic-owned businesses by 56 percent, Asian-owned businesses by 41 percent; and Black-owned business by 26 percent.
New small businesses face many challenges, but they are thriving in MoCo. Watch the clip below with Peyton Taylor who runs a window tinting business called Eastside Auto on New Hampshire Avenue. Peyton started in his garage and expanded to a shop behind a commercial strip where he is working seven days a week serving a large area.
Talking to business owners big and small around the county show that transportation remains a high priority and means shifting business patterns. We have posted a short interview with Jessica Rodriguez, owner of Cuba de Ayer restaurant in Burtonsville, who speaks of these challenges.
For Cuba de Ayer employees, the bus schedule is a big determinant on work schedules, as buses do not run during weekend hours when the restaurant is busiest. As a result, there are many part-time workers at the restaurant.
Housing Trends
We saw higher rates of foreclosures in the areas where the most homes were built and where the ethnicity of residents increased the most. These areas are also where housing prices tend to be the most affordable. It will be increasingly important to provide ways to reduce housing costs in these and other areas.
For example, transit helps to reduce household costs especially as gas prices creep higher. Extending public transportation to areas where people live and now have to travel long distances to work can help reduce housing costs.
Do the Population Changes Cost Us More?
When a condominium is built in White Flint or downtown Silver Spring, a lot more people live in the same space compared to residents of a single- family home. Existing sewers, water mains and other utilities are used and typically no new roads are built. When a new subdivision is built on vacant land, the contrary is typically true.
The property tax generated for a mid-rise, multi-unit condo is about $6.9 million compared to $1.33 million for single-family houses.
With only about four percent of the county left to build upon, can we accommodate the expected population on our 8,000 acres of surface parking lots? Three new condo buildings in White Flint required small infrastructure investment and only generated around 18 school children.
Single-family houses generate more school children than condo homes. Since we expect many existing single-family houses to cycle from older residents to younger families, we can expect our existing housing stock to cost more in education and infrastructure than the multi-unit buildings constructed in our urban areas and commercial corridors like White Flint.
MoCo is going to grow regardless of whether we build new houses. Our population growth occurs through birth rates, foreign migration and our proximity to Washington, D.C. jobs. Insert ‘reasons for growth’
Clearly, the places in America that attract new people are the places that will succeed in the rapid globalization of commerce, social patterns and information. As we plan for the future residents of the county, let’s keep in mind that regardless of our ethnic and cultural backgrounds, we all want the same things.
Presentation on diversity and the results of the 2010 Census given March 1, 2011 at the request of Council President Valerie Ervin.
